Another day, another Aaron Judge walkoff for the New York Yankees. Ho hum.
As it stands on this Monday, June 27, the Yanks are on pace to collect 117 victories, which would give them another marquee spot in baseball's history books.
The 2001 Mariners won 116 games after going 54-19 in their first 73 games. New York is 53-20.
So, what do our numbers say about the Yankees' chances of etching their names next to the best record in MLB history? The eight-ball shows up..."outlook not good."
Will the Yankees break the Mariners regular season win record?
The above odds imply a 15.38% probability that the Yanks will break Seattle's 21-year-old record.
Okay, so that's very unlikely to happen. But what about the possibility of Aaron Judge breaking Roger Maris' team record of 61 home runs in a season?
Maris belted 61 bombs during the 1961 season, which stood until 1998. While many believe this is still the "true" home run record, the odds don't suggest Judge can reach 62 in 2022, which is the exact number he's on pace for.
Will the Aaron Judge break Roger Maris' team home run record?
Yes +400
No -700
The implied probability for these odds gives Judge just a 20.00% chance of surpassing Maris.
